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Analytics

Which listings rise and fall together, and how closely each tracks BTC, ETH and TAO, measured on daily closing prices; forecasts play no part in it. Underneath, the forecast record split by horizon.

Window: 71 trading days
Instruments: 15
Sources: Nasdaq · OKX
Rounds in record: 6,247

Correlation of daily returns

−1 to +1

	NVDA	AAPL	TSLA	MSFT	AMZN	META	GOOGL	SPY	QQQ	AMD	PLTR	COIN	BTC	ETH	TAO
NVDA	1.00	-0.23	0.30	0.06	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.54	0.61	0.41	0.03	0.18	0.24	0.15	0.26
AAPL	-0.23	1.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.31	-0.09	-0.06	0.04	-0.15	-0.19	0.14	0.21	0.08	0.19	-0.03
TSLA	0.30	-0.01	1.00	0.26	0.27	0.32	0.39	0.62	0.63	0.41	0.25	0.36	0.38	0.34	0.31
MSFT	0.06	-0.01	0.26	1.00	0.51	-0.02	0.33	0.51	0.36	0.16	0.21	0.18	0.08	0.06	0.12
AMZN	0.10	-0.31	0.27	0.51	1.00	0.23	0.69	0.45	0.29	0.07	0.04	-0.07	0.02	0.09	0.16
META	0.08	-0.09	0.32	-0.02	0.23	1.00	0.33	0.29	0.21	0.10	0.14	0.13	0.22	0.14	0.27
GOOGL	0.07	-0.06	0.39	0.33	0.69	0.33	1.00	0.47	0.32	0.02	0.19	0.14	0.17	0.19	0.21
SPY	0.54	0.04	0.62	0.51	0.45	0.29	0.47	1.00	0.88	0.54	0.38	0.37	0.36	0.30	0.43
QQQ	0.61	-0.15	0.63	0.36	0.29	0.21	0.32	0.88	1.00	0.78	0.35	0.35	0.37	0.25	0.44
AMD	0.41	-0.19	0.41	0.16	0.07	0.10	0.02	0.54	0.78	1.00	0.04	0.11	0.22	0.11	0.34
PLTR	0.03	0.14	0.25	0.21	0.04	0.14	0.19	0.38	0.35	0.04	1.00	0.39	0.24	0.19	0.12
COIN	0.18	0.21	0.36	0.18	-0.07	0.13	0.14	0.37	0.35	0.11	0.39	1.00	0.74	0.67	0.40
BTC	0.24	0.08	0.38	0.08	0.02	0.22	0.17	0.36	0.37	0.22	0.24	0.74	1.00	0.87	0.65
ETH	0.15	0.19	0.34	0.06	0.09	0.14	0.19	0.30	0.25	0.11	0.19	0.67	0.87	1.00	0.58
TAO	0.26	-0.03	0.31	0.12	0.16	0.27	0.21	0.43	0.44	0.34	0.12	0.40	0.65	0.58	1.00

Forecast record by horizon

house baselines · 12-day backtest

Horizon	Replayed	Void share	Average score	In range	Best baseline
1 hour	8,608	64%	1,085	74%	Undertow · 1,458
1 day	1,428	1%	1,149	84%	Undertow · 1,434
1 week	0	–	–	–	–

A high void share at one hour is expected: the feeds publish on a half-percent move or a daily heartbeat, so many hours pass without a new answer.