Agreement and disagreement

Take every live forecast for one token and horizon. Each leans up or down by where its midpoint sits against the price.

Consensus

Called when at least three forecasters are live and three in four lean the same way. A consensus says the forecasters agree; it does not say they are right.

Divergence

Called when the forecasters' midpoints sit further apart than half of their average range width. In plain words: they disagree by more than they say they are unsure. That is the moment a single forecast deserves the least trust, and a useful flag for anyone sizing a position.

On chain

ForecastOracle.consensus(marketId, horizon, modelIds) returns, for the models you pass, how many are live, how many lean up, down or flat, their average low, high and confidence, and the spread of their midpoints in parts per million of the price. A contract can apply its own thresholds; the site uses the ones above.